As if the world needed a reminder, President Putin re-injected his nuclear arsenal into the Ukraine conflict by stating that Russia might deploy nuclear weapons to Belarus this summer. It has been a few months since Putin had made reference to his nuclear capabilities with respect to Ukraine, and a number of serious analysts had begun to speculate that perhaps cautious Chinese and Indian statements in late 2022 may have tempered Russia’s willingness to threaten nuclear use. I have thought, however, that the relative stalemate in the Ukraine war had been a much larger factor in the absence of nuclear threats. If Putin is not losing, there is less to deter, perhaps?
There are several things that are odd about the statement by Putin, however. One, it comes just after Chinese President Xi had visited Moscow, ignoring Putin’s indictment by the International Criminal Court as a war criminal and providing Putin some international cover. That did not last long. Even more strangely, the two men issued a joint statement that included several reasonable statements, some of which could have been adopted by the United States.
“The two sides emphasized the significance of the “Joint Statement of the Leaders of the Five Nuclear-Weapon States on the Prevention of Nuclear War and Avoidance of an Arms Race” and reaffirmed that “nuclear war cannot be won or won”. The two sides call on all signatories of the joint statement to abide by the concept of the statement, effectively reduce the risk of nuclear war, and avoid any armed conflict among nuclear-weapon states. Against the backdrop of deteriorating relations among nuclear-weapon states, measures to reduce strategic risks should be organically integrated into overall efforts to ease tensions, build more constructive relations, and minimize conflicts in the security field. All nuclear-weapon states should refrain from deploying nuclear weapons abroad and withdraw nuclear weapons deployed abroad.”
Of course, the reality is that China has consistently spurned repeated US efforts to pursue risk reduction and crisis management, Russia just illegally and dangerously intercepted an unarmed US drone flying in international waters, and Russia continues to brandish nuclear weapons as a way of backing its conventional aggression. It would make sense for US officials to take the joint statement and issue its own invitation for Russia and China to adopt steps that would faithfully implement such initiatives.
So why Belarus and why now? A few good pieces have been written on this, including by my friend Joe Cirincione at Strategy & History and by the ever insightful Fred Kaplan. At this stage, we need to admit that our ability to understand Putin’s thinking is unreliable, at best. We know his invasion of Ukraine has gone worse than anyone in Russia, Ukraine or America could have imagined. It also remains unclear if Putin will ever seek some face-saving way out of his Ukrainian folly. After he was indicted as a war criminal for stealing Ukrainian children, the chances of Putin backing down from Ukraine grew even smaller, but it remains clear that he is acting on a set of calculations and priorities that are no longer consistent with American thinking of Russian national security or even self-preservation for Putin. That should worry, well, everyone.
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