The last few months have seen a slew of nuclear developments and the pace of these new and evolving dynamics has been somewhat overwhelming. Any one of the issues that have come across the headlines would be enough to create a buzz and yet the multiple nuclear challenges, dangers and crisis all seem to be happening in parallel. I have been working on nuclear issues for 40 plus years, and it is hard to recall a time when so many issues were moving all at once. Here is just a short list, and I will be putting out some new pieces of each in the weeks ahead.
1) Russia-Ukraine – The war continues, and while the reports of possible Russian escalation have abated, it seems that this is a temporary that could change quickly at any time. The most recent example is the dangerous and unprofessional downing of a US MQ-9 drone by Russian aircraft. This shows that the risk of escalation between Russian and western forces remains real and cannot be discounted. The failed Russian offensive in Ukraine this winter also leaves open the possibility of a Ukrainian military counter-offensive and breakthrough, something that could lead to a return of Russian nuclear threats. Moreover, the growing tension within the Republican party, illustrated by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ comments that the US does not have a vital interest in the “territorial dispute” between Russia and Ukraine will further ignite concerns in Europe that the US is not a reliable partner. This, in turn, will lead others to think about their own security options. Some might even think about how nuclear weapons might fit into that equation. France and UK already have nuclear capabilities dedicated to NATO, but for some that might not be enough.
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